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乌克兰对外情报局评估称，俄罗斯正濒临经济危机。
下周，俄罗斯国家杜马将审议一项关于修订联邦预算指标的政府法案。对外情报局新闻处称，俄罗斯需要紧急采取行动，解决预算收支严重失衡的问题。
对外情报局强调，俄罗斯经济日益恶化的负面趋势是由于支出严重超过收入，这主要是因为需要为俄罗斯针对乌克兰的战争机器提供燃料。
该报告称，由于上述失衡，俄罗斯政府目前被迫将预算赤字增加220%（从120亿美元增加到420亿美元）。与此同时，俄罗斯财政部表示，预计GDP增长率将保持在2.5%不变，据称是因为预计“非石油和天然气收入将增加”。
事实上，对外情报局解释说，这意味着企业将面临前所未有的税收压力，据信这将是俄罗斯近代史上最严峻的税收压力。
为了使经济形势正常化，俄罗斯政府计划将个人所得税收入提高180%，企业利润税收入提高110%，增值税收入提高17%。与此同时，俄罗斯多达30%的中小企业已经濒临破产。预计到2025年底，这些企业的破产比例将上升到50%。
俄罗斯财政部长安东·西卢安诺夫表示：“俄罗斯预算的优先事项保持不变……无论外部条件和因素如何，所有国家发展目标都将实现……”。
然而，情报分析人士指出，财政部长并未提及俄罗斯预算收入超过30%依赖于关键的石油出口这一事实。2025年第一季度，乌拉尔原油价格大幅下跌。
目前，普里莫尔斯克和新罗西斯克港口的俄罗斯石油采购价格为每桶47-49美元，而预算最初确定的价格为每桶69.7美元。因此，俄罗斯石油和天然气年收入下降幅度可能高达30%，即300亿至400亿美元，这实际上相当于俄罗斯2025年的预算赤字。
对外情报局补充道，“在操纵官方统计数据的背景下，通货膨胀率的情况也类似。俄罗斯政府将通货膨胀率设定为7.6%，而我们估计俄罗斯的实际通货膨胀率已经超过20%。”
Russia is on the verge of an economic crisis, the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (SZRU) assesses.
Next week Russia’s State Duma will consider a government bill on revising federal budget indicators. Urgent action is required over huge imbalance in the budget’s revenues and expenditures, according to the SZRU press service
Mounting negative trends in Russia’s economy come as a result of a significant excess of expenditures over revenues, primarily due to the need to fuel Russia’s war machine against Ukraine, the Foreign Intelligence Service emphasized.
According to the review, due to the said imbalance, the Russian government is now being forced to increase budget deficit by 220% (from $12 billion to 42 billion). At the same time, the Russian finance ministry says the projected GDP growth rate will remain unchanged at 2.5%, allegedly because of the expected “increase in non-oil and gas revenues”.
In fact, the SZRU explained, this implies an unprecedented increase in tax pressure on businesses, believed to be the toughest in Russia’s recent history.
To normalize the situation of the economy, the Russian government intends to increase revenues from personal income tax by 180%, those from corporate profit tax by 110%, and by 17% – from value added tax. At the same time, up to 30% of small and medium-sized businesses in Russia are already on the verge of bankruptcy. By the end of 2025, their share is expected to increase to 50%.
As per Russia’s finance chief Anton Siluanov, “the priorities of the Russian budget remain unchanged… all national development goals will be met regardless of external conditions and factors…”.
However, intelligence analysts noted that the finance minister stops short of mentioning the fact that the Russian budget’s revenue part depends on critical oil exports by over 30%. In the first quarter of 2025, Urals oil significantly lost value.
Currently, purchases of Russian oil in the ports of Primorsk and Novorossiysk range at $47-49 per barrel, while the budget initially laid the price down at $69.7 per barrel. Therefore, the fall in Russia’s oil and gas revenues in annual terms could be up to 30%, or $30-40 billion, which is in fact equal to the Russian budget deficit for 2025.
“In the context of manipulating official statistics, the situation is similar with the inflation rate. The russian government sets the rate at 7.6 %, while we estimate that real inflation in Russia is already exceeding 20%,” the SZRU added.
