https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0vv93pz14zo
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s alliance might be heading for victory, but it is expected to fall well short of the landslide exit polls predicted.
Mr Modi’s BJP-led alliance is leading in more than 290 of 543 seats up for grabs, but for the first time in a decade the party looks set to fail to reach an outright majority by itself.
Many observers have been surprised by the strong opposition showing so far. The Congress and other allied opposition parties are projected to win more than 230.
A slew of exit polls at the weekend showed the BJP-led NDA alliance on course for a super majority of two-thirds of parliament, which would have allowed it to make changes to the constitution.
Rahul Gandhi – of the opposition Congress party – told reporters on Tuesday that Mr Modi and the BJP had been “punished” by voters at the ballot box.
Mr Modi, who has retained his seat in Varanasi as he eyes a historic third consecutive term in office, had set a target of 370 seats for the BJP and 400 seats for his alliance. This was up from the 303 seats won by the BJP alone in the last general election in 2019.
Exactly how much of the vote has been counted so far remains unclear. However, as it stands, the BJP is not expected to get the 272 seats on its own that are needed for a majority in the lower house of parliament.
This means – for the first time – Mr Modi would have to rely on smaller parties in the NDA to push through its agenda.
The election was seen by many as a referendum on Mr Modi’s decade in office, during which he has transformed many aspects of life in India, so this would be a major upset. The mood in BJP offices around the country has been described by BBC reporters as “sombre”.
In contrast, at Congress headquarters, party workers have been celebrating the early results. The Indian markets, meanwhile, have been showing jitters – falling more than 2% – testifying to the fact that it’s not been a runaway result so far for the governing alliance.
印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪的联盟可能即将获胜，但预计其支持率将远远低于预测的压倒性优势。
莫迪领导的人民党联盟在 543 个席位中领先超过 290 个，但十年来，该党似乎首次无法独自获得绝对多数。
许多观察家对迄今为止表现出来的强烈反对感到惊讶。国大党和其他盟友反对党预计将赢得超过 230 个席位。
周末的一系列出口民调显示，人民党领导的全国民主联盟有望获得议会三分之二的绝对多数，这将使其能够修改宪法。
反对党国大党的拉胡尔·甘地周二告诉记者，莫迪和人民党在投票箱受到了选民的“惩罚”。
莫迪保住了他在瓦拉纳西的席位，并期待着历史性的第三届连任，他设定的目标是人民党获得 370 个席位，他的联盟获得 400 个席位。这一数字高于 2019 年上一次大选中人民党单独赢得的 303 个席位。
目前尚不清楚有多少选票已被统计。然而，就目前情况而言，预计人民党无法独自获得议会下院多数席位所需的 272 个席位。
这意味着莫迪第一次必须依靠全国民主联盟中的小党派来推动其议程。
许多人将这次选举视为对莫迪十年执政的一次公投，在此期间，他改变了印度生活的许多方面，因此这将是一个重大的意外。BBC 记者将全国各地人民党办公室的气氛描述为“阴郁”。
相比之下，在国大党总部，党员们一直在庆祝早期的结果。 与此同时，印度股市表现出紧张情绪，跌幅超过 2%，证明执政联盟迄今为止的选举结果尚未取得压倒性胜利。
