英语:拜登退选后,万斯可能是特朗普的错误选择

Source: With Biden out, Vance may be the wrong pick for Trump – POLITICO

U.S. President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the White House race may well turn 2024 into the Year of the Woman — namely, that of Vice President Kamala Harris who, armed with the outgoing president’s endorsement, can now be considered the front-runner to replace him atop the Democratic ticket.

Truth is, if Harris is successful in getting the nod from the Democratic Party, much of the subsequent election campaign is likely to domestically focus on abortion and women’s rights. Trump already has a problem with women voters — polls have consistently shown that the proportion of women planning to vote for him this November is smaller than those who did in 2020. And Vance has nothing to offer Trump on this score — quite the reverse, he risks compounding his boss’s problem.

Presumably, Trump chose Vance as his VP candidate largely to fire up the MAGA base and boost the Republican ticket in Rust Belt states. But that was a choice made when Biden was still heading the Democratic ticket. Now that he’s not, Vance may well become a liability.

Vance’s strict anti-abortion positions of the past, and a string of highly contentious statements he’s made about divorce, implying that women trapped in abusive marriages should remain married for the sake of the kids, aren’t likely to be forgotten. In 2021, he suggested ending marriages that were “maybe even violent” as selfish. “This is one of the great tricks that the sexual revolution pulled on the American populace,” he said. “Making it easier for people to shift spouses like they change their underwear.”

He’s also a strict pro-natalist, characterizing those who don’t have kids as “childless cat ladies,” and suggesting that people with children should be given additional votes. He has taken aim at childcare subsidies as “class war against normal people,” despite — or maybe because — such subsidies provide women with young kids more opportunities to work or go to school and be independent.

美国总统乔·拜登退出白宫竞选的决定很可能将 2024 年变成“女性年”——即副总统卡马拉·哈里斯的年,在即将离任总统的支持下,她现在可以被认为是接替他在民主党总统候选人的领跑者。 事实是,如果哈里斯成功获得民主党的认可,接下来的竞选活动很可能会集中在国内堕胎和妇女权利上。特朗普已经遇到了女性选民的问题——民意调查一致显示,计划今年 11 月投票给他的女性比例低于 2020 年。而万斯在这一点上无法向特朗普提供任何帮助——恰恰相反,他可能会让他老板的问题变得更严重。 据推测,特朗普选择万斯作为他的副总统候选人,主要是为了激发 MAGA 基本盘并提高共和党在铁锈地带各州的选票。但这是拜登在民主党候选人竞选领先时做出的选择。现在,拜登不再是他的对手,万斯很可能会成为一种负资产。 万斯过去严厉的反堕胎立场,以及他就离婚发表的一系列极具争议性的声明,暗示陷入虐待婚姻的女性应该为了孩子而保持婚姻,这些都不太可能被忘记。 2021 年,他认为结束“甚至可能是暴力”的婚姻是自私的。 他说,“这是性革命对美国民众施展的绝妙伎俩之一。让人们更容易更换配偶,就像更换内衣一样。” 他也是一位严格的生育主义者,将那些没有孩子的人描述为“没有孩子的猫女士”,并建议有孩子的人应该获得额外的选票。他将儿童保育补贴视为“针对普通人的阶级战争”,尽管——或者可能是因为——此类补贴为有小孩的女性提供了更多工作、上学和独立的机会。
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